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Content warning: This briefing may contain references and links to descriptions of abuse, torture, and racial and gendered violence at borders. 

AT A GLANCE

• US: On 24 January, federal agents shot and killed ICU nurse Alex Pretti, the second civilian life claimed by the Trump Administration’s onslaught in Minneapolis. Unapologetic officials proceeded to brand the civilian legal observer a domestic terrorist, displaying the same shaky relationship to reality they did after the earlier killing of Renee Good. Six others died in encounters with ICE this month, and custody deaths are at record levels. Whilst both supporters and opponents have exaggerated the level of backlash, it’s clear that well-organised resistance to ICE has exploded across the Twin Cities and seems a factor in Trump’s partial retreat, with Homeland Security secretary Kristi Noem sidelined and tactical commander Gregory Bovino removed. One poll claims more people now want ICE abolished than retained. We don’t know how all this ends, but there is no easy path back. This is where the war on migration - surveillance, militarisation, and impunity, first targeting marginalised people and expanding to everyone - was always leading. Those involved in the decades of cross-border, cross-party consensus necessary to get to this point should take a bow. 

• Spain: Since Trump’s Greenland threats (and apparent US backing for Canadian separatists), a nervous Europe has oscillated between its suspicion that Washington is not on its side, and its perceived strategic dependence on the Atlantic alliance. One source of alternatives seems to be Spain, which has been clear on climate action, critical of excessive militarism, welfarist, and openly pro-migration (standard social democratic fare, but radical in current circumstances.) One doesn’t have to ignore Madrid’s contradictory record (including opening two new offshore detention centres in scandal-hit Mauritania last year) to recognise the significance of its new decree to regularise 500,000 people lacking documents or seeking asylum, and opposition to the EU’s new Deportation Regulation. Most of Europe is looking to Washington’s approach over Madrid’s, but as the tactical-level aggression of constant deportation attempts continues giving way to a total lack of strategy for responsibly managing either migration or public opinion on migration, that may begin to shift. 

BORDER EXTERNALISATION

• Central Mediterranean: Up to 380 people may have drowned attempting to cross the Mediterranean in a horrific week even by standards on the dangerous route, as Cyclone Harry battered southern Italy and Malta (its severity likely the result of climate change.) As the cost was counted, a leaked European Union paper proposed even more restrictions on sea rescue in the region. The proposal (which appears completely unworkable) would facilitate the instant deportation of people rescued at sea to the places they have fled. 

• Meanwhile Italy’s foreign minister has confirmed that the number of people departing Libya has increased, so all that border control seems to be working just brilliantly. 

• The EU is planning a new maritime control centre in Benghazi, capital of Eastern Libya’s unrecognised government. This echoes its previous tactic of empowering Western Libyan “rescue” capacity (Europe, of course, has a creative definition of this word) in order to scale back its own responsibilities. It has also delivered further equipment to Tunisia for land and maritime border control, in spite of it reviewing parts of its relationship with Tunis over abuse concerns.

• Netherlands/Uganda: In October 2024 the Netherlands presented plans to open a new deportation camp in Uganda, for rejected people seeking asylum. Ministers confirmed recently that negotiations remain in progress, and sources close to government say an agreement may be signed shortly, despite a spate of violence and repression around Ugandan elections.

• UK/Rwanda: Kigali has announced that it is taking legal action against the United Kingdom for its refusal to make payments following the governments' failed migration agreement.   

• Belgium: Belgium is reported to be planning visits to Turkey and the DRC to negotiate agreements on deportations, and similar talks with Taliban officials over Afghans.

DETENTION, DEPORTATION AND BORDER VIOLENCE

• Europe: In between whatever it is trying to achieve in Minnesota, ICE has made the somewhat odd announcement that it wants to send agents to Italy with the US delegation to the Winter Olympics (maybe all the violence is getting tiring and they just want to enjoy an aperitivo.) The mayor of Milan has taken a dim view of the idea, but it’s sparked some wider European soul-searching. As the EU’s liberal Renew party insists ICE is not welcome, critics have pointed out that one of their MEPs is central to advancing a new deportations bill that could pave the way to ICE-style tactics in Europe. Meanwhile the “We Keep Us Safe” campaign has launched to monitor deportation news across Europe.

• The EU has unveiled the latest version of its migration control strategy, focusing on increasing deportations of people whose asylum claims have been rejected. The European Parliament is currently examining a legal text put forward by the European Commission allowing for so-called "return hubs" to be set up outside EU borders, potentially in the Balkans or Africa. The proposal also envisages harsher penalties for people who refuse to leave European territory, including longer periods of detention, and more externalisation deals with third countries. Meanwhile polling suggests that Europeans want border control in the hands of their countries, not the EU (a key driver for Brexit.) Context News has also tracked the wider likelihood of a generally bleak year for people seeking asylum anywhere.

• An internal EU report obtained by Statewatch offers an update on efforts to strengthen border controls within the Schengen area in the first half of 2025.

• US: Indigenous tribal leaders say that ICE is now detaining members of their community in Minneapolis. One can make the obvious point here, that the call about a violent immigrant population may in fact be coming from inside the house, but it’s also worth noting that these events have recent precedent; Mexico’s US-backed migration crackdown also saw indigenous Mexicans arrested and abused. Any sufficiently aggressive migration enforcement campaign seems to invariably slip into racial profiling; Black and Asian British citizens are more likely to be stopped by immigration enforcers than people with irregular status. 

• Amid the sound and fury, how many people is the US actually deporting? This is not as simple a question as it sounds, and Austin Kocher’s stream can help navigate the complexity, but it’s probably not as many as the administration claims. However, as Minneapolis descended into chaos, ICE stopped its usual hyperactive comms operation and went dark for a week. 

• In the course of its Minneapolis offensive, ICE also appeared to attempt to invade the Ecuadorian consulate, a move subsequently condemned by Quito. All totally normal.

• Several protesters were detained and others exposed to tear gas during a demonstration at a family immigration detention facility in Texas. 

• UK: The infamous Brook House detention centre was the subject of a national independent inquiry after G4S guards were filmed abusing detainees in 2017. The Independent has obtained accounts from staff that allege the bad old days are back. 

• The first group of 27 asylum seekers has arrived at a former military site in Crowborough, East Sussex, which will eventually house over 500 people. Protests are already springing up, and in case you thought those are protests against people seeking safety being corralled into camps, they’re not. 

• The UK Home Office TikTok account has been doing not particularly good tributes to its US counterpart, posting footage of deportations and arrests set to dramatic music and telling viewers that “they’re just getting started.” We’re sure this will make Reform voters give the Labour government a clap on the back and let bygones be bygones. 

• South Asia/ Europe: Pakistan is escalating deportations targeting the over 700,000 Afghans who fled after the Taliban's 2021 return to power. Germany’s recent reneging on pledges to take Afghan asylum seekers has also made things worse, while Sweden is calling for an EU-wide bid to speed up Afghan deportations. On the topic of Sweden, the Guardian has the story of a mother and her two children living in a pre-deportation centre near Stockholm’s airport.

• Chile: Chilean president-elect José Antonio Kast recently visited the Dominican Republic, announcing that he would take the country’s mass deportation agenda as a point of reference for his own migration policy.

• Germany: DW has a piece explaining Berlin’s strategy to gradually remove legal obstacles to deportation, which has so far proven effective.

SURVEILLANCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND INDUSTRY

• US: Behind every ICE agent wielding mismatching tactical gear sits a dizzying array of technologies. Forbes has looked into the companies involved and there are no massive surprises - it’s a host of players across tech and telecoms, ranging from less to more ideological (Palantir.) It’s also deploying more tools than ever before to aid in its identification of both people it seeks to detain, and protesters. It’s not just ICE; the Minnesota State Patrol used a costly and dangerous sound cannon against protesters to disperse them. A group of tech workers have, in turn, set up an anti-ICE campaign group. 

• US/ EU: Autonomous drones that detect and track people along the border are being researched along European and US borders. Some critics have raised ethics and rights issues, others simply say the plan won’t work. 

• Europe: Invisible Borders, a two-year research project led by the Border Violence Monitoring Network, has a new podcast explaining Europe’s surveillance dragnet. 

• UK: The government has abandoned its plans for mandatory digital ID for all workers, which were sold as a migration control measure, but opposed heavily by Reform and the Conservatives.

• Australia: The Royal Australian Navy is set to spend AUD1.7bn on its fleet of new “Ghost Shark” robot submarines, and Indonesia also seeks similar gear. These are military capabilities, but with Pacific migration set to continue and Australia’s history of hardline stance, it’s worth noting their potential border surveillance use.

MIGRATION POLICY AND POLITICS

• US/UK: An interesting piece from menswear writer Derek Guy pushes back on claims that Border Patrol commander Gregory Bovino’s martial greatcoat aimed to channel Nazism, and instead argues that the increasingly military attire of immigration officials shapes how they are meant to be seen, and see themselves. This feels relevant as official US government accounts increasingly adopt a belligerent style of posting that borrows from a mix of war films, right-wing memes, twee nostalgia, and recently, the co-option of Werner Herzog’s nihilistic penguin (to which French leftists had a pithy reply.) Meanwhile, British anti-immigration activists seized on a cartoon character from a government-run educational programme meant to prevent far-right radicalisation, instead turning her into an avatar for their cause. It has been a month of significant material policy shifts, but politics also often comes down to vibes, and observers ignore such cultural signifiers at their peril.

• US: While much attention has been paid to the impacts of the Trump administration’s effort to limit immigrants’ use of federally funded health, early education, and community services, it is far less widely understood that this move also stands to significantly destabilize the country’s adult education system, says the Migration Policy Institute.

• Greece: Seán Binder, who was among a group of humanitarians facing a battery of criminal charges relating to their rescue and assistance work at the Greek border, was acquitted in January. The case was one of the most high profile instances of attempts to criminalise solidarity. 

• Athens is seeking to toughen penalties for facilitating migration. Those found guilty of smuggling offences could face up to life imprisonment if a new bill is passed. 

• UK/France: Two British nationals suspected of coming to France to take part in a banned far-right protest against migration were arrested, following a recent ban on a number of agitators. The Guardian also reports on increased far-right harassment of people in the Calais region. 

• French authorities have carried out their first waterborne interception of a suspected smuggling boat under new Channel patrol tactics, and an Afghan teenager has become the first person to be charged with a new UK offence of “endangering others during a sea crossing” to the UK (more on the context to these new laws here.) Meanwhile UK prime minister Keir Starmer has signed a data-sharing agreement with China aimed at preventing Chinese-made material being used in small boat crossings. 

• UK/Palestine/Israel: UK refugee status has been granted, despite political attempts to block the decision, to a 26-year-old Palestinian citizen of Israel. It was upheld that the claimant’s fear of persecution was valid.

• Latvia: Riga is claiming that the Belarusian government is involved in planning and carrying out irregular crossings across the border between the two countries, reigniting the argument that has seen Poland suspend international asylum law at its border with EU backing. 

• Switzerland: An estimated 11,000 to 14,000 people living in the city of Zurich without valid health insurance could benefit from new basic healthcare assistance.

• South Africa: The Guardian has a detailed story on irregular migration routes from East to South Africa.

CLIMATE, NATURE, AND THE FUTURE OF MIGRATION

• World: Current climate migration literature focuses on establishing links between climate drivers and migration but ignores the role that migration plays within the context of climate impacts, adaptation and the connection with mitigation, argues an article in Nature, which aims to broaden the horizons of climate-migration research.

• UK: A suppressed national security assessment on biodiversity loss has been released, indicating dire consequences - including displacement - from collapsing global ecosystems.

• Bangladesh: Lacking food, shelter and income, many climate-displaced people are forced to resort to crime or are exploited by criminal networks, argues the Refugee Law Initiative. 

• Pacific: Alolita Tekapu and her family are among the first arrivals under the agreement that allows people from the climate-stricken island of Tuvalu to move to Australia. There’s also new analysis out on the mental health costs of climate-linked displacement in Pacific islands.